Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
